Recent Changes

Canadian Soccer 2019 Forecast

This system is an attempt to model the Canadian Premier League season, and provides useful insight into the probability of various occurrences in the remainder of the season.

The algorithm projects the results of future matches by simulating them. No data about the teams prior to 2019 is used. The model uses various assumptions in the absence of previous data:

Team-level data (see Power Rankings) are added to this model; see below for explanation about how these are calculated.

The algorithm results in a reasonable model for wins, losses, and draws. The actual schedule is used, and each match is simulated individually. The season is simulated a number of times (currently 100,000), and the results of the simulations are tallied and presented.


The algorithm uses the first three tiebreakers correctly:

  • Wins
  • Goal differential
  • Goals scored
Further tiebreakers are currently not implemented, and ties are broken randomly.

Canadian Premier League Championship

Sources differ on the format of this competition; some say the format has not been decided, while others say it will be a two-legged home-and-away series. The forecast currently assumes it will be a home-and-away series, and randomly chooses which of the two qualifying teams hosts the first match.

Power Rankings

The power rankings algorithm uses 2019 matches (only), along with mean-regression estimates derived from Iceland's top division (Úrvalsdeild), in order to estimate the offensive and defensive strength of each team. These measures are aggregated into a single power ranking.

The power rankings correspond to the relative frequency with which each team should score a goal against each other team. As such, they represent the probability that a team would win against other teams in a golden goal situation. High-scoring teams will tend to have more wins (and losses), and fewer ties. For this reason, given two teams with the same power ranking, the higher-scoring team should perform better in the standings.

Future work