World Cup Odds

Ratings updated through games of 5 Jul 2006

The World Football Rankings model individual goals in a match, so we can use them to simulate the upcoming World Cup in Germany in order to determine the odds of certain outcomes. A computer program simulates the tournament thousands of times and keeps track of what happens.

See the About page for more details on the rating system and the tournament simulations. Here are the most recent simulation data:

World Cup 2006 -- 10000 simulations

Pool A
Name	Rating	Won Group		Advanced		Quarterfinals		Semifinals		Final		Winner
Name	Rating	%	Odds	%	Odds	%	Odds	%	Odds	%	Odds	%	Odds
Germany	1722	100.00	0.00-1	100.00	0.00-1	100.00	0.00-1	100.00	0.00-1	0.00	Long	0.00	Long
Costa Rica	629	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long
Poland	959	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long
Ecuador	850	0.00	Long	100.00	0.00-1	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long

Pool B
Name	Rating	Won Group		Advanced		Quarterfinals		Semifinals		Final		Winner
Name	Rating	%	Odds	%	Odds	%	Odds	%	Odds	%	Odds	%	Odds
England	2187	100.00	0.00-1	100.00	0.00-1	100.00	0.00-1	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long
Paraguay	942	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long
Trinidad and Tobago	311	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long
Sweden	1590	0.00	Long	100.00	0.00-1	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long

Pool C
Name	Rating	Won Group		Advanced		Quarterfinals		Semifinals		Final		Winner
Name	Rating	%	Odds	%	Odds	%	Odds	%	Odds	%	Odds	%	Odds
Argentina	2127	100.00	0.00-1	100.00	0.00-1	100.00	0.00-1	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long
Côte d'Ivoire	986	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long
Serbia and Montenegro	638	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long
Netherlands	2459	0.00	Long	100.00	0.00-1	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long

Pool D
Name	Rating	Won Group		Advanced		Quarterfinals		Semifinals		Final		Winner
Name	Rating	%	Odds	%	Odds	%	Odds	%	Odds	%	Odds	%	Odds
Mexico	1313	0.00	Long	100.00	0.00-1	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long
Iran	824	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long
Angola	496	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long
Portugal	1883	100.00	0.00-1	100.00	0.00-1	100.00	0.00-1	100.00	0.00-1	0.00	Long	0.00	Long

Pool E
Name	Rating	Won Group		Advanced		Quarterfinals		Semifinals		Final		Winner
Name	Rating	%	Odds	%	Odds	%	Odds	%	Odds	%	Odds	%	Odds
Italy	2395	100.00	0.00-1	100.00	0.00-1	100.00	0.00-1	100.00	0.00-1	100.00	0.00-1	44.20	1.26-1
Ghana	598	0.00	Long	100.00	0.00-1	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long
USA	1099	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long
Czech Republic	1520	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long

Pool F
Name	Rating	Won Group		Advanced		Quarterfinals		Semifinals		Final		Winner
Name	Rating	%	Odds	%	Odds	%	Odds	%	Odds	%	Odds	%	Odds
Brazil	2712	100.00	0.00-1	100.00	0.00-1	100.00	0.00-1	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long
Croatia	1337	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long
Australia	1084	0.00	Long	100.00	0.00-1	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long
Japan	938	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long

Pool G
Name	Rating	Won Group		Advanced		Quarterfinals		Semifinals		Final		Winner
Name	Rating	%	Odds	%	Odds	%	Odds	%	Odds	%	Odds	%	Odds
France	2970	0.00	Long	100.00	0.00-1	100.00	0.00-1	100.00	0.00-1	100.00	0.00-1	55.80	0.79-1
Switzerland	1089	100.00	0.00-1	100.00	0.00-1	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long
Korea Republic	877	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long
Togo	369	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long

Pool H
Name	Rating	Won Group		Advanced		Quarterfinals		Semifinals		Final		Winner
Name	Rating	%	Odds	%	Odds	%	Odds	%	Odds	%	Odds	%	Odds
Spain	2292	100.00	0.00-1	100.00	0.00-1	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long
Ukraine	867	0.00	Long	100.00	0.00-1	100.00	0.00-1	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long
Tunisia	773	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long
Saudi Arabia	509	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long	0.00	Long